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Mortgage News
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| 3/11/2010, 11:05 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch After two dataless days and no movement in mortgage rates, action picked up yesterday. Mortgage rates opened the day lower, however, thanks to big turnout at the 10 year Treasury note auction, enchmark yields rallied and mortgage-backed security prices moved higher into the close. We sat and waited for lenders to reprice, disappointingly they never did. This isn't a surprise though, lenders are quick to take away rate sheet pricing when MBS prices are falling but really slow to pass along improvements when MBS prices are on the rise. We had a couple of scheduled economic reports that were released early enough to sway the direction of mortgage rates today. First we got Weekly Jobless Claims from the Department of Labor. This report provides three measures on the health of the labor market...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 10:25 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Today RealtyTrac® released its February U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. The RealtyTrac report shows that foreclosure filings, which include default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions declined 2 percent from January. A total of 308,524 properties in the United States received one of the listed notices during the month. This equates to 1 house in every 418 units. Compare that to January's ratio of 1 in every 409. That works out to a 10% month over month improvement. However, when comparing data from one year ago (Feb 2009), the ratio is still 6% worse. James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac says, "The 6 percent year-over-year increase we saw in February was the smallest annual increase we've seen since January 2006 , when we began calculating...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 10:24 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary MBS end 1 tick down at 100-29 10yr Note Yield at 3.725 S&P up 5 points, all gains late in the day 30yr Auction pressures rates early and helps out late This one's a good read, and a tangible concept to share with clients and business partners Something Epic? Let's not get too carried away... After all, we've been here plenty of times before only for the much anticipated turning point to send markets sideways--merely prolonging the "waiting for guidance." But where exactly is "here?" And why is it more epic than every other day that bonds end the day "honing in" (trading in a narrowing orbit AROUND a certain price) on key technical levels? Fortunately, the 2 day chart contains a good example of something we see fairly often, which is prices or yields...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 08:37 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary The Edge: Both MBS 4.5's and 10yr notes are UNCHANGED at the moment For MBS, that's 100-30 and for the 10yr, that's just under 3.73 Verdict on this auction cycle: undecided... waiting for retail sales tomorrow and FOMC next week The snake continues to coil, but who will it strike? When we reference the snake, that would be a chart with with converging/competing trends in a "triangle" shape. Since the line on such charts is usually predisposed to move directionally after it breaks out of the triangle. In this sense, it's like a "coiling snake" preparing to strike out in one direction or the other. As we are still in the middle of this triangle, there's no clear indication of which direction rates want to move of their own accord. With retail sales coming...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 07:40 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Increasing the minimum down payment required for a Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan from 3.5 percent to 5 percent could be a double whammy, affecting both potential homebuyers and the economy as a whole according to David H. Stevens, FHA Commissioner. At the same time, a lower loan to value ratio (LTV) by itself is not a particularly good indicator of buyer risk. In a statement prepared for a hearing Thursday afternoon by the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity, the Commissioner said if the agency raised the minimum down payment to 5 percent "as some have suggested," it would adversely impact the housing market recovery. The agency has conducted an evaluation of the loan files of a large sample of recent loans to identify homeowners...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 06:09 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary The previously discussed auction concession must have been sufficient because the long bond auction went very well. Overall, auction demand was well above average---2.89 bids were submitted for every one accepted by the Treasury. 82% of the auction was taken down at the high yield of 4.679% (dealer bids). I should share the auction caveat before going any further.... success was driven by a hungry bid from from direct buyers who took home a record 29.5% of the issue . This massive support offset a very weak turnout from Indirect bidders, who were awarded only 23.9%. Primary dealers got 46.4% of the $13 billion...below average Here is a recap of the results: 29-YEAR 11-MONTH BONDS YIELDS High 4.679 pct Median 4.645 pct Low 4.580 pct PRICE/ACCEPTANCES Price 99.128159 Accepted at high 82.80 pct...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 05:48 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: The Garrett Watts Report A portmanteau means a blend of two or more words and their meanings into one new word. An example is the word brunch meaning breakfast +lunch. Another is smog meaning a combination of smoke and fog. Some would consider a portmanteau a type of word morphing and we agree. Mortgage lending has had its share of portmanteaus. Over the last several years mortgage brokers who were transitioning to mortgage banking were sometimes phrased as Brankers. Branker is a morph of a mortgage banker and mortgage broker. A Branker acts and operates as a mortgage broker and doesn’t perform many functions of a mortgage banker – underwriting, doc prep and secondary market --, but does fund and sell loans in their name as a mortgage bankers. One key similarity with Bankers and Brankers is loan repurchase...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 04:37 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary The main theme in the rates market this morning has been a set up for the last Treasury auction of the week :$13 billion 30s. Results to be released at 1pm. The auction supply concession is obvious when looking at both price action outright as well as the long bond's performance relative to the rest of the yield curve. The chart below is 30 year bond prices. Notice the initial concession that was able to be built in after the Employment Situation Report was released last Friday. This theme carried over to this week...bond prices have continued to fall ahead of today's auction. Looking at the long bond's performance relative to the rest of the yield curve makes the auction concession even more obvious. 30s got their butts whipped by 2s after jobs data last Friday and the curve steepened...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 03:56 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: Pipeline Press Who says numbers aren't fun? A top muni bond analyst at Wells Fargo sent THIS to me. Numbers are fun! Sometimes time drags, and sometimes it flies. I came to this brilliant observation yesterday while waiting in the California DMV, waiting for my 15 year old daughter to obtain her driver's permit. Time flies doesn't it? On the other hand, in the mortgage business, it seems like a lifetime ago when companies were offering stated/stated 90% neg AM loans. Can anyone seriously push to have those days come back? That being said, ING notified its brokers that it raised LTV's and CLTV's, especially on Jumbo adjustable rate mortgages. US Bank's wholesale division is pushing its 1/1, 3/1, 5/1, 7/1, 10/1 ARM programs with IO options, cash out, up to $1.5 million. EverBank is "dipping...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 01:52 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Good Morning. A nationwide strike has essentially shut down Greece. From the AP : "Thursday's strike — the second in a week — brought the country to a virtual standstill, grounding all flights and bringing public transport to a halt. State hospitals were left with emergency staff only and all news broadcasts were suspended as workers walked off the job for 24 hours to protest spending cuts and tax hikes designed to tackle the country's debt crisis" Seems like a good way to cut the deficit doesn't it? (note sarcasm) Jobless Claims data has been released. The market was expecting 460,000 new claims and 4.49m continued claims. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims fell to 462,000 in the week ending 3/6/2010. This is 6,000 less than the previous...(read more) |
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| 3/11/2010, 01:21 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Speculation that China may have to tighten its economic policy is pulling investor sentiment lower this morning. Amid positive data on industrial production and retail sales, Chinese CPI climbed 2.7% in February, indicating that the central bank may have to take a more serious approach to slow down spending. “China is aiming for 3% inflation for all of 2010,” said Benjamin Reitzes from BMO. “Continued acceleration would make that target tough to hit and markets are concerned that this latest jump in inflation could cause Chinese officials to tighten policy further.” Reitzes called the CPI figure “somewhat troubling,” adding that it’s too early to a definitive statement that prices are about to take off. “However, with the economic numbers showing...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 10:13 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary This is always the question right? I mean, after all, we already know what is available on our rate sheets at the moment, but the most valuable question always asks for tomorrow's MBS prices today. Forgetting for a moment that you'll usually LOSE more money thinking that way than you'll make, let's suspend GUTFLOP and see if we have any hints at tomorrow's action according to today's events. First, the fundamental arguments... What do we know? 10yr auction built up a decent concession going in and stopped pretty much on the screws (meaning that rates went up ahead of the auction, then we saw strong demand at those rates) Strong demand AT THOSE RATES is evidenced by the relatively high "offers accepted at high" metric from the auction, meaning that most of the...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 09:48 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch Much like Monday, yesterday was a data-less day in the marketplace, leaving me at a loss for words and new guidance. Mortgage-backed securities prices did managed to move higher following a very strong 3 year Treasury debt auction, unfortunately MBS price appreciations were not strong enough to warrant reprices for the better and lenders left mortgage rates unchanged on the day. The economic calendar picked up today, but not much. This morning the Mortgage Bankers Association released their Weekly Loan Applications Index. The MBA survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 08:23 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Heading into the 5pm "what a slow day in the mortgage market" marking period... The FN 4.0 is -0-03 at 98-01 yielding 4.189% and the FN 4.5 is flat on the day at 101 the rock yielding 4.39%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.33%. The CC yield is 61bps over the 10yr TSY note yield and 58.6 basis points over the 10 yr swap rate. Static current coupon yield spread valuations are TIGHTER AGAIN! Holy relentless yield spread tightening! LOOK HOW SIDEWAYS FN 4.5 PRICES WERE TODAY! The MBS NINJA shares his thoughts on the recent stability of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons in the face of rising benchmark yields: Mortgages, trading in the secondary market (soon to filter back to the primary and rate sensitive one), are tightening daily as more money is put to work along...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 07:26 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MND NewsWire American consumers are now defaulting on their mortgages in even greater numbers than they are walking away from credit card debt. According to FICO's® Score Trends Service, this is a phenomenon that is historically unique. FICO said the mortgage default risk for consumers with high FICO scores now exceeds their credit card default risk, even though most credit cards are unsecured credit and mortgages are secured by real estate. There is a parallel rise in mortgage delinquencies for these high scoring consumers. The company said that their analysis of trends in FICO scoring shows that recent repayment behavior has shifted significantly from what has historically been expected. In 2005 bankcard accounts were more than 3 times more likely to become seriously delinquent, that is 90+ days...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 06:08 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary 10 year auction has impressive demand, but at higher rates. 3.45 Bid To Cover, but 3.735 % high yield with 70.94% of the bids at high yield MBS and Treasuries both slightly better on the announcement 4.5's are now down only 2 ticks on the day at 100-29 and 10yr yields are back down to 3.72+ from 3.74+ Here is a breakdown of the auction results: 9-YR 11-MO NOTES YIELDS High 3.735 pct Median 3.700 pct Low 3.636 pct PRICE/ACCEPTANCES Price 99.090493 Accepted at high 70.94 pct Bid-to-cover ratio 3.45 AMOUNTS TENDERED AND ACCEPTED (dollars) Total accepted 21,000,013,800 Total public bids tendered 72,466,493,000 Competitive bids accepted 20,829,510,800 Noncompetitive bids accepted 70,503,000 Fed add-ons 248,452,700 Primary Dealer Tendered 49,661,000,000 Primary Dealer Accepted 9,857,410,000 Primary...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 05:09 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 5, 2010. The survey covers over 50 percent of all US residential mortgage loan applications taken by mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The data gives economists a look into consumer demand for mortgage loans. A rising trend of mortgage applications indicates an increase in home buying interest, a positive for the housing industry and economy as a whole. Furthermore, in a low mortgage rate environment, such a trend implies consumers are seeking out lower monthly payments which can result in increased disposable income and therefore more money to spend on discretionary items or to pay down other debt. From the release: The Market Composite Index, a measure of...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 05:05 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary 4.5 MBS down 6 ticks to 100-26 10yr Tsy about 5bps higher at 3.743 (vs. 5pm yesterday) Wholesale Trade Improves from -.8% to -.2%, but misses expectation of +.2%, no one cares Pre-Auction Concession + range dynamics weigh on 10's, MBS follow The movements in bonds this AM tells us just how focused the market is on the upcoming auction. Granted, the econ data earlier today isn't exactly "top shelf" (or even middle shelf for that matter), but without a microscope, it's hard to tell if it was even traded. The "room to run" that AQ discussed this AM in conjunction with the standard pre-auction concession is dominating the movements in the benchmark, which itself, is forcing MBS prices lower. Somewhere between an eighth and a quarter of a point has left the YSP building...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 04:22 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: Pipeline Press At the last company Christmas party, loan agents lined up on one side of the room and the underwriters on the other side. The loan agents throw fire cracker at the underwriters...and the underwriters lit them and threw them back. A long-time underwriter wrote to me and opined, "Consumers always want more than what they can afford and we gave them exactly what they wanted for the last 10 years (without any prudent financial advice). I actually like the guideline changes and feel it is necessary to eradicate some of the lackadaisicalness that I hear in some underwriter's voices. Manufacturing quality is still a problem for the Agencies, and originating mortgage companies are still closing loans that are not 100% purchasable by the aggregators upon delivery. Fannie and Freddie have technology...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 01:40 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary Good Morning. I've had some great coaches in my lifetime...none better than my high school/juniors hockey skipper. Many of the messages he bestowed upon me have carried over from the locker room into my professional life. One of my favorites is the K.I.S.S principle. KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID This is incredibly relevant to the current market environment. The econ calendar isn't providing much meaningful guidance at the moment. Stocks are still showing an unwavering inclination to do what they want, when then want. Politicians are counting votes, leaving some of the most important reform debates of our era at the mercy of party lines. Fiscal affairs abroad are falling victim to heavy scrutiny AND speculation. Overall, this doesn't paint a very clear BIG PICTURE perspective. Well actually...(read more) |
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| 3/10/2010, 01:22 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Investors this morning await the first real data to be released this week. But wholesale trade inventories isn’t a major market mover, nor is the afternoon’s budget statement, so it could be a quiet day if investors prefer to postpone trading until retail sales figures hit the headlines on Friday. One hour before the opening bell, the market is pretty flat. Dow futures are down 1 point at 10,563 and futures on the S&P 500 are up 0.00 points to 1,140.50 Meantime, WTI crude oil is up 31 cents to $81.80 per barrel, and Spot Gold is trading $5.15 higher at $1,127.00. Earlier today the Mortgage Bankers Association said its index of mortgage application rose 0.5% in the first week of March, but it remains down 12.5% from last year. Key Events Today: 10:00 ― Wholesale Trade Inventories...(read more) |
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| 3/9/2010, 09:51 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary 10yr Notes progressively improved into the PM , ending 5 ticks better on the day with a yield of 3.70. MBS fought off much of the AM weakness in tsy's, and rallied just as well into the PM, reaching 101-15 at 4pm. But then we ended 4 ticks down on the day at 101-01! WHAT?!?!? So you're tellin' me MBS effectively erased all gains from the past two days?! Not exactly... I'll let AQ explain... -------------------------------------------- If you haven't read the following description of the agency MBS settlement process...please don't skip over it as it may save you from having to change your pants when next month's settlement rolls around. If you have read it...go over it one more time just to make sure the underlying logic is clear. The March FN 4.5 MBS coupon has...(read more) |
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| 3/9/2010, 08:45 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MND NewsWire Commercial and multifamily mortgages continue to have the lowest rates of charge-offs of any loan types at banks and thrifts and perform better than the overall loan portfolios at those institutions according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). In response to what it referred to as a great deal of discussion and conjecture about those loans in recent months, MBA updated an earlier " DataNote " analysis of commercial and multifamily mortgage data from the 4th quarter of 2008 with data from the same period in 2009. The report states that 56 percent of the assets held by banks and thrifts at the end of 2009 consisted of loans and leases, a category that includes 1-4 family mortgages, home equity loans, credit cards and other consumer loans, commercial mortgages, multifamily mortgages...(read more) |
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| 3/9/2010, 08:37 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MND NewsWire The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has released the results of the first stage of its increased oversight and enforcement of job creation requirements under Section 3 of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968. In a press release on Monday HUD said that more than 3,100 state and local government agencies that receive HUD funds have responded to its campaign to expand hiring and contracting opportunities for low-income persons and three out of four of HUD-funded state and local agencies had submitted their annual reports. HUD said that this was the largest response since HUD made such reporting mandatory. Under Section 3, state and local governments that receive funding from HUD in excess of $200,000 for activities involving housing construction, demolition, rehabilitation...(read more) |
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| 3/9/2010, 08:01 PM by Mortgage News Daily |
Posted To: MBS Commentary MBS Off To The Races with 4.5's up 8 ticks to 101-15! 10yr up 5 ticks on the day dropping yield to 3.70 (through post auction resistance) Reprices for the better = highly likely From the Ninja: Mortgages are still on hold as today’s 3yr note auction held few surprises-everyone loves the shorter end of the curve; don’t you? $40 billion notes maturing in 2013 is quite commonplace and the sheer size of the issue is no longer an emotional and or logistical challenge to anyone directly (or indirectly, on the bid) involved. No real change to the way we do and or perceive business here in MBS secondary trading land. The market is better into lower and or range-bound rates, like today, and not as excited should the treasury market break out to the upside to prices (and lower interest...(read more) |
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